Measured by surface area, the caspian sea is the worlds largest inland water body. The estimate of the broad strategic factors that influence the determination of missions, objectives, and courses of. For what purpose does the geographic combatant commander conduct a strategic estimate. Welcome to the military decision making process lesson. We discuss how each of the 12 chapters addresses these three processes and provide examples from each chapter. This paper is a theater strategic estimate for central america and mexico developed as part of the air war college regional studies program requirements. Jun 12, 2017 military strategic estimate order description references. Useucom commanders testimony before the senate armed services committee 2.
Below is an overview of some of the more commonly used. Ahurastan seceded from iran in 20182019 and claims rights to the oil reserves in the caspian sea. A large expanse of clear sky permitted this naturalcolor satellite image of the. In addition, the tools are commonly used in many organisations for strategic decision making. Unclassified appendix 1 intelligence estimate to annex b intelligence to 4id opord 2101 ironhorse challenge u b unclassified ahurastan and heads the union of proazerbaijani forces upaf political party. The third section discusses an important conceptstakeholder managementthat must be taken into account during the strategic management process. Security issues and implications for us interests purpose. The country is sparsely populated as compared to its neighbors, with the kurds making up a large percentage of the ethnic grouping.
Strategic guidance is expressed through national security strategy and national military strategy relative to the deliberate or crisis action attainment of strategic objectives. Strategic estimate caucasus region regional analysis ahurastan population. There are two new states, ahurastan and luristan, a result of the fragmentation of iran. Strategic estimate definition of strategic estimate by. Acting as a useucom joint planning group, prepare a strategic estimate of the caucasus region for the country of ahurastan. Creating a comprehensive decision analysis playbook for. Strategic direction introduction strategic environment regional analysis. Operational planning application jtf caspian february, 2020. Methods of strategic analysis and proposal method of. Road to war up to 2019 in the caucasuscaspian sea region 3.
Military strategic estimate order description references. Conplan 4567 caspian guard common training scenario. Strategic analysis tools topic gateway series 4 context in the current cima syllabus, students will study and may be examined on strategic analysis tools as part of the management level paper 5, integrated management. Jay 20150309 strategic estimate of the caucasus region us domestic considerations are the oil pipeline through the southern caucasus. Threat is conventional forces reinforced by asymmetric en sapa using coe. C200 strategic estimate college essay cyber essays. Ultimately, the choice will be based on experience and instinct. Strategic estimate caucasus region regional analysis ahurastan population approximately 33. This page condenses essential information in bullet sentences for easy recall. Strategic estimate of the situation 1 this handout guides your production of a strategic estimate of the situation by unpacking the five blue boxes of your template for analysis and action. Congressional background paper barbra doziers blog. A good strategy and supporting business design will have at least one strategic control point, but the most compelling strategies will contain two or more.
Strategic guidance is expressed through national security strategy and national military strategy relative to the deliberate or. In the united states, military vocabulary is standardized by the department of defence. Miller lieutenant colonel, usaf 1992 22 it 9232707 air universit r miu united states air force maxwell air force base, alabama. The chief of staff indicated that ahurastan be included in the regional study and a third course of action be developed for the brief. May 01, 2008 fictional country of ahurastan equals bad, azerbaijan and georgia good, coalition of uk, turkey, and us good guys. Jul, 2017 acting as a useucom joint planning group, prepare a strategic estimate of the caucasus region for the country of ahurastan. It is a statement of what is to be done in broad terms sufficiently flexible to permit its use in.
In the new century, azerbaijan has become a persisten favoriate of american military writers of. However, the remaining two elements of the traditional strategic estimate defining and then selecting from alternative courses of action seem particularly unsuited to the latin american region, and especially to our area of focus the. Natousrussian naval sanctionssupport diplomatic ruleslaws with regard to commerce vessels in. The russian military presence and involvement within the region. Strategic estimate of the caucasus region nonusmultinational policy goals, include nato expansion in size and influence. While the ic remains focused on confronting a number of conventional challenges to u. Nonusmultinational policy goals, include nato expansion in size and influence. The bcg strategic portfolio model it is a method of approaching and analyzing business marketing and growth developed by the boston consulting group. Strategic estimate of the caucasus region academic. In the new century, azerbaijan has become a persisten favoriate of american military writers of planning scenarios, surely reflecting actual. This handout guides your production of a strategic estimate of the situation by unpacking the five blue boxes of your template for analysis and. If deterrence fails, jtf caspian needs to be able to 2 defend azerbaijan from ahurastan attack and defeat or eject ahurastan forces from azerbaijan in the event hostilities commence. Update the strategic estimate for the caucasus region based on notional scenario events that have occurred up to december 2019. Central asia and south caucasus office of the director of national.
The estimate of strategy prepared by geographic combatant commander is an available tool to ccmds and sub unified commands since they develop and campaign design plans and subordinate campaign. Gaat scenario strategic estimates by adi y on prezi. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to department of defense, washington headquarters services, directorate for information operations and reports 07040188, 1215 jefferson davis highway, suite 1204, arlington, va 22202. The strategic environment is changing rapidly, and the united states faces an increasingly complex and uncertain world in which threats are becoming ever more diverse and interconnected. For purposes of this paper, mexico has been included with the central american region, although the author recognizes that it lies outside the southern commands area of responsibility. As directed by the chief of staff through the j5, your jpg has completed an update of the strategic estimate see c207 slides provided for the caucasus region to get the commander up to speed on the situation in the region regarding ahurastan and provide the basis for a commanders estimate and, if necessary, development of plans. Ongoing russian involvement in south ossetia and abkhazia. The situation in the caucasus region has shown signs of increasing instability. Findings from the czech republic afonina anna abstract the purpose of this study is to investigate the current level of strategic management tools and techniques utilization as well as to explore and identify the impact of management tools on or. Ahurastan was founded in 2019 and the government is a military dictatorship. Arab states, factor central asia and the south caucasus into their strategic. The estimate of the broad strategic factors that influence the determination of missions, objectives, and courses of action. Fictional country of ahurastan equals bad, azerbaijan and georgia good, coalition of uk, turkey, and us good guys.
Azerbaijan, ahurastan, and iran claim the arazalovsharg oil field in the caspian sea. Update the strategic estimate for the caucasus region based on notional. Strategic concept the course of action accepted as the result of the estimate of the strategic situation. Armenias primary domestic issue is a reliable source of energy to sustain its manufacturing. You will use this page to place at the combatant commanders fingertips for use in his discussions in washington key facts, ideas or information from the strategic estimate that you prepared. Strategic management tools and techniques and organizational performance. Us army combined arms center battle command battle laboratory. A chapter vi peacekeeping force brigade size completes deployment to nagornokarabakh united nations interim administration mission, nagornokarabakh unink.
To the ancient greeks and persians, the lakes immense size suggested it was an ocean, hence its name. Our opensource library houses the thousands of documents, periodicals, maps and reports released to the public. Apr 17, 2015 strategic estimate of the caucasus region ahurastan is a young country that is not yet identified internationally, but it poses a threat to established nations such as azerbaijan. Jtf warno1 strategic communication classified information scribd.
It has also been reported that ahurastan had bought two new fungi. The transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way, roughly from west to east and without precedent in modern history, as the primary factor in the decline of the united states relative strengtheven in the military realm us national intelligence council, global trends 2025. This number is based on the national intelligence estimate report that 3 million kurds represented 9% of total population. Strategic estimate of the caucasus region high quality. C210 point paper cacausus region 1195 words bartleby. The estimate is continuous and includes the strategic direction received from the president, secretary of defense, or the authoritative body of an alliance or coalition. Managers will need to know the key methods and techniques of strategic cost analysis no matter which sectors they are in be it manufacturing, service, or the nonprofi t sector.
For the ex when you get to fl this time round you will be at the cflcc level and mixed in with the us staff groups, the groups will be large about 27. This lesson provides an overview of the us armys mdmp, an. The us has had the ultimate aim of preventing the emergence of any major power in eurasia. Middle east iran the world factbook central intelligence. Strategic planning is more of an art than a science. Strategic estimate of the caucasus region ahurastan has a population of 33 million, comprised of 80% azeri, 9% kurd, and 11% other, and is 89% shia and 10% sunni. The long term ethnic conflicts of armenia and azerbaijan.
Us domestic considerations are the oil pipeline through the southern caucasus region and the black sea for trade access. Strategic management tools and techniques and organizational. The paradox however is as follows the goals of these interventions was never to achieve something whatever the political rhetoric might have said but to prevent something. Forces are from italy, russia, germany, ireland and belgium. Strategic estimate of the caucasus region ahurastan is a young country that is not yet identified internationally, but it poses a threat to established nations such as azerbaijan. The broad range of strategic factors that influence the commanders understanding of its operational environment and its determination of missions, objectives, and courses of action. Ahurastan s open support for sappsapa creates additional conflict in the caucasus region.
Strategic analysis tools topic gateway series 5 one of the key skills of a strategic analyst is in understanding which analytical tools or techniques are most appropriate to the objectives of the analysis. Appendix 1 intelligence estimate to annex b intelligence to 4id opord 2101 ironhorse challenge u b15 unclassified an attractive target for ahurastan s pursuit of technical information and training on biological agent production processes. Strategic estimate definition of strategic estimate by the. The current ahurastan president is piruz dilanchi and the prime minister is general ali kerimli. Us army combined arms center battle command battle.
Adversaries and strategic competitors probably will attempt to use deep fakes or similar machinelearning technologies to create convincingbut falseimage, audio, and video files to augment influence campaigns directed against the united states and our allies and partners. The strategic options should be ranked in terms of the strength of their strategic control over the market. Welcome to the military decision making process lesson 1. A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. The estimate is continuous and includes the strategic direction received from the president, secretary of defense, or the authoritative body of. Strategic analysis american international university. No amount of analysis will identify categorically which strategic option to select, but the analysis and techniques in this chapter can help the decisionmaking process. It covers roughly 371,000 sq km 143,200 sq mi and borders five countries. Regional analysisahurastanpopulation approximately 33. Methods of strategic analysis and proposal method of measuring productivity of a company 179 3. The primary guiding principle of the bcg groups strategy is.
The 7step jopp is the process for developing a commanders estimate. This entry gives an estimate from the us bureau of the. Strategic estimate caucasus region rank name date mission statement eucom. Compare potential challenges with anticipated capabilities challenge 3 threat on caspian sea on commercial vessels involving oil shipments capabilities. Natousrussian naval sanctionssupport diplomatic ruleslaws with regard to commerce vessels in caspian sea risk. Theater strategic estimate central america and mexico r, t ada258 377 i. Jun 12, 2015 strategic estimate of the caucasus region. Regional analysis ahurastan population approximately 33.
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